On Monday, January 22, the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) raised the alarm about potential hazards that could threaten the Greater Metro Manila Area (GMMA) in the event of the so-called “Big One.” The discussion took place during an event titled “MAGHANDA: Communicating Hazards, Risks, and Early Warning for Policymakers.”
Phivolcs Science Research Specialist and Geologist Daniel Buhay delivered a sobering message, revealing that GMMA could face economic losses totaling 2.5 trillion pesos if the “Big One” were to occur. The dire prediction underscores the urgency for preparedness and risk mitigation strategies in the densely populated capital region.
According to Buhay, the Risk Analysis Project conducted by Phivolcs in collaboration with the University of the Philippines, Diliman Institute of Civil Engineering (UPD ICE) in 2013, estimates a grim scenario. There could be a staggering 37,000 fatalities and 605,000 “slight to life-threatening” injuries in the aftermath of the potential seismic event.
The focal point of concern is the West Valley Fault, identified by experts as the potential epicenter of the “Big One.” Buhay explained that the fault’s movement could trigger a magnitude 7.2 earthquake with a “very destructive” impact reaching Intensity VIII. The West Valley Fault spans an extensive 100 kilometers, cutting across Bulacan, Rizal, Quezon City, Marikina City, Pasig City, Taguig City, Muntinlupa City, Laguna, and Cavite.
The gravity of the situation emphasizes the need for a comprehensive and coordinated approach to disaster preparedness, early warning systems, and risk communication. Phivolcs’ event, “MAGHANDA,” serves as a platform to engage policymakers and the public in understanding the imminent risks and taking proactive measures.
To address the potential fallout, authorities must prioritize investments in infrastructure resilience, community education, and emergency response capabilities. The collaboration between Phivolcs and UPD ICE highlights the importance of interdisciplinary efforts in comprehending and mitigating the complex risks associated with seismic activities.
In conclusion, the warning from Phivolcs regarding the “Big One” serves as a crucial reminder for Greater Metro Manila Area residents and policymakers to prioritize earthquake preparedness. With the potential for significant economic losses and human casualties, proactive measures, public awareness, and strategic planning are imperative to minimize the impact of this looming threat on the heart of the Philippines.