The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) released its official weather forecast for January 31, 2026, warning of widespread rains over several parts of the country due to the combined effects of a shear line and the Northeast Monsoon.
According to PAGASA, the shear line continues to affect the eastern sections of the Visayas and Mindanao, bringing cloudy skies with scattered rains and isolated thunderstorms. Provinces expected to experience significant rainfall include Visayas, Romblon, Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, Agusan del Norte, Camiguin, and Misamis Oriental. Moderate to heavy rains in these areas may trigger flash floods and landslides, especially in low-lying, mountainous, and landslide-prone locations.
Meanwhile, the rest of Mindanao will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms caused by localized thunderstorms. PAGASA cautioned that while rains may be brief, severe thunderstorms could still result in flash floods or landslides.
Metro Manila and the rest of the country, including much of Luzon and western Visayas, will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains due to the Northeast Monsoon. No significant weather impacts are expected in these areas, although residents are advised to remain alert, particularly during early morning and nighttime hours.
In terms of wind and coastal water conditions, moderate to strong winds from the east to northeast are expected over the northern and eastern sections of Luzon and Visayas. Coastal waters in these areas will be moderate to rough, with wave heights ranging from 2.1 to 4.0 meters. The eastern section of Mindanao will also experience moderate to strong winds from the northeast to north, with sea conditions reaching 1.8 to 3.1 meters. The rest of the country will have light to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas.
PAGASA also issued a heavy rainfall outlook due to the shear line. For today, rainfall amounts of 50 to 100 millimeters are expected over Albay, Sorsogon, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, Leyte, and Biliran. Tomorrow, the same rainfall range is forecast over Albay, Sorsogon, Northern Samar, and Eastern Samar. By Monday, February 2, heavy rains may affect Eastern Samar, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Dinagat Islands, and Surigao del Norte. Rainfall may be higher in elevated areas, and impacts could worsen due to significant antecedent rainfall.
General Flood Advisories were issued at 6:00 AM today for Region 8 (Eastern Visayas), Region 11 (Davao Region), and Region 13 (CARAGA), all under GFA #2, with Davao Region already marked as final.
PAGASA emphasized the importance of understanding the difference between a Heavy Rainfall Warning and a Weather Advisory. A Heavy Rainfall Warning provides highly accurate, short-term forecasts for the next three hours at the municipal level using Doppler radar, making it crucial for immediate flood preparedness.