The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) has reported significant developments in the activity of Kanlaon Volcano, located on Negros Island. Magma has ascended to a depth of less than five kilometers from the crater, indicating heightened volcanic unrest. Phivolcs Director Teresito Bacolcol noted that the eastern flank of the volcano is exhibiting noticeable inflation, suggesting magma accumulation near the surface. Consequently, Kanlaon remains under Alert Level 3, signifying magmatic unrest.
Recent observations have shown a substantial decrease in sulfur dioxide emissions, dropping from over 4,000 tons in June 2024 to 2,183 tons as of February 9, 2025. Additionally, there have been no ash emissions since February 7, which may indicate that the volcanic conduit is currently obstructed. This blockage could lead to a pressure build-up, potentially triggering explosive activity.
Phivolcs has outlined three potential scenarios for Kanlaon’s activity:
- Gradual Magma Ascent: Magma rises slowly, leading to lava overflowing from the crater, similar to the 2024 eruption of Mount Mayon.
- Rapid Magma Ascent with Conduit Obstruction: A swift rise of magma coupled with a blocked conduit could result in a powerful eruption, producing hazardous pyroclastic density currents. In this scenario, the danger zone may need to be extended up to 10 kilometers from the crater.
- Diminishing Magma Movement: A decrease in magmatic activity, reducing the likelihood of an eruption.
Director Bacolcol emphasized that while the second scenario would lead to hazardous conditions, such intense volcanic activity is typically short-lived due to the rapid release of magma. He assured residents that Kanlaon has not yet reached this critical stage.
Kanlaon Volcano has exhibited increased activity since mid-2024. On June 3, 2024, an explosive eruption produced a 5,000-meter-high plume, leading to evacuations in nearby communities. Subsequent months saw elevated sulfur dioxide emissions and volcanic earthquakes. On December 9, 2024, another significant eruption occurred, resulting in ashfall affecting areas as far as Panay and Guimaras, and the evacuation of approximately 87,000 people.
Given the current conditions, Phivolcs advises the public to avoid entering the 4-kilometer Permanent Danger Zone (PDZ) due to the risks of explosions and hazardous volcanic flows. Communities surrounding the volcano are urged to remain vigilant and adhere to any evacuation orders or advisories from local authorities. Residents should also be cautious of potential ashfall and be prepared for possible evacuation if the situation escalates.
Local government units are encouraged to continuously monitor the situation and ensure that contingency plans are in place. Phivolcs continues to closely observe Kanlaon’s activity and will provide updates as necessary.
The public is reminded to rely on official sources for information and to refrain from spreading unverified reports that may cause unnecessary alarm. Staying informed and prepared is crucial as the situation evolves.