TYPHOON “CARINA” CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD
Location of Center (4:00 PM):
The center of Typhoon CARINA was estimated based on all available data at 325 km East Northeast of Basco, Batanes (21.1°N, 125.0°E)
Intensity:
Maximum sustained winds of 150 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 185 km/h, and central pressure of 960 hPa
Present Movement:
Northward at 20 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds:
Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 540 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 2
Wind threat: Gale-force winds
Warning lead time: 24 hours
Range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9)
Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
Areas Affected:
LUZON: Batanes
TCWS No. 1
Wind threat: Strong winds
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
Areas Affected:
LUZON: Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, the eastern portion of Isabela (Divilacan, Palanan, Maconacon, Dinapigue, Tumauini, Ilagan City, San Mariano, Cabagan, San Pablo, Santa Maria), the northern portion of Apayao (Calanasan, Luna, Pudtol, Flora, Santa Marcela, Kabugao), and the northern portion of Ilocos Norte (Pagudpud, Bangui, Adams, Dumalneg, Burgos, Vintar, Pasuquin, Bacarra, Carasi)
OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Forecast accumulated rainfall:
From today to tomorrow afternoon
100-200 mm: Batanes, Babuyan Islands, the northern and eastern portion of Mainland Cagayan, and Ilocos Sur
50-100 mm: Ilocos Norte, La Union, Abra, Benguet, Apayao, the eastern portion of Isabela, and the rest of Cagayan
From tomorrow afternoon to Thursday afternoon (25 July)
100-200 mm: Batanes
50-100 mm: Babuyan Islands
Note: Forecast rainfall is generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas. Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are possible, especially in areas highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in official hazard maps and in localities that experienced considerable rainfall over the past few days. The Southwest Monsoon, enhanced by CARINA, will bring moderate to intense rainfall over various localities in the western portion of Luzon today through Thursday. For more information, refer to Weather Advisory No. 27 issued at 11:00 AM today.
Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
Minor to moderate impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the localities where Wind Signal No. 2 is hoisted.
Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
The Southwest Monsoon, enhanced by CARINA, will also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):
Today: Ilocos Region, Abra, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Zambales, Bataan, Aurora, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, and Davao Region
Tomorrow: Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Region, Abra, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Central Luzon, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, and Northern Mindanao
Thursday: Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Central Luzon, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Western Visayas, Negros Occidental, and Northern Samar.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
Gale Warning is in effect over the coastal waters of Batanes, Babuyan Islands, and the northeastern portion of Cagayan. Sea travel is risky for small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas. For more information, refer to Gale Warning No. 2 issued at 5:00 PM today.
In the next 24 hours, CARINA and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon will bring rough seas over the northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboard of Central Luzon outside Gale Warning areas (2.5 to 4.0 m).
Moderate to rough seas are also expected over the eastern seaboards of Southern Luzon (2.0 to 3.0 m), western seaboards of Luzon (2.0 to 3.5 m), the southern seaboards of Southern Luzon (2.0 to 3.5 m), the western and eastern seaboards of Visayas (2.0 to 3.5 m), and the eastern seaboard of Mindanao (1.5 to 2.5 m). Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
Over the Philippine Sea, CARINA is forecast to move generally north-northwestward tonight while gradually accelerating before turning northwestward tomorrow (24 July). On the track forecast, CARINA will remain far from the Philippine landmass. It is also forecast to make landfall over the northern portion of Taiwan between tomorrow evening and Thursday (25 July) morning, then exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) hours later. Outside the PAR, CARINA will cross the Taiwan Strait and make landfall over southeastern China on Thursday afternoon or evening.
CARINA is forecast to steadily intensify and may reach its peak intensity before its landfall over Taiwan due to the favorable environment. Rapid intensification remains likely. Its landfall over northern Taiwan will trigger a weakening trend for the rest of the forecast period.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information, stay tuned to official updates and bulletins.