The Philippines may face three successive tropical cyclones this week, according to PAGASA, the state weather bureau. Typhoon Nika already struck the northern Philippines on Monday morning, prompting evacuations and the temporary closure of ports as precautionary measures. The storm is expected to move over the West Philippine Sea by Monday afternoon or evening, exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Tuesday morning.
Shortly after Nika’s anticipated exit, a new tropical depression is projected to enter PAR on Tuesday. Once inside, this system will be locally named Ofel. PAGASA predicts Ofel to strengthen significantly while crossing the Philippine Sea, possibly escalating to typhoon status before it makes landfall over northern or central Luzon by late Thursday or early Friday.
Meanwhile, another weather system currently identified as Tropical Storm Man-yi was spotted east of Guam on Monday. This storm is forecasted to enter the PAR before the weekend, and if it does, it will be assigned the local name Pepito. PAGASA has indicated that Pepito could be headed towards the Bicol Region or Eastern Visayas, potentially adding another layer of risk for affected communities.
According to Ana Liza Solis, PAGASA’s Chief of Climatology Monitoring and Prediction, the consecutive arrival of storms is not unusual. Since the 1950s, scientists have observed similar patterns, especially under conditions resembling La Niña, where warmer-than-usual sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific make the region highly conducive to storm formation. “These warmer sea surface temperatures promote evaporation and cloud development, leading to increased occurrences of tropical depressions and storms,” Solis said.
Although the final paths of Ofel and Pepito remain uncertain, the absence of the northeast monsoon, or “amihan,” may leave the northern parts of Luzon open to these storms. Solis explained, “When the northeast monsoon sets in, typhoons usually avoid these areas. This wind shift can alter storm paths, often pushing them towards the southern parts of the country, such as Visayas and Mindanao.”
The northeast monsoon season has not yet been declared, but PAGASA suggests that it could commence soon, which might bring a shift in weather patterns. As the nation braces for the impact of these storms, PAGASA continues to closely monitor developments to provide timely advisories for preparedness.