Date Issued: December 16, 2024
Validity: Within the forecast period, unless superseded by succeeding updates
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued a Tropical Cyclone Threat Potential Forecast, highlighting a developing low-pressure area (LPA) within its monitoring domain. The agency urges the public to stay informed and updated as weather conditions may change.
Current Situation
🔴 PAGASA is closely monitoring an LPA within the Philippine Monitoring Domain (PMD). Forecast models suggest that during Week 1 of the forecast period, there is a significant likelihood of a tropical cyclone-like vortex (TCLV1) forming near the southeastern portion of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). This system is expected to traverse Northern Mindanao, Visayas, and Palawan.
🔴 TCLV1 is assessed to have a moderate to high probability of developing into a tropical cyclone during this period. Residents in these areas are advised to prepare for potential impacts, such as strong winds and heavy rainfall.
Week 2 Outlook
🔴 By Week 2, TCLV1 is projected to cross land and move over the West Philippine Sea. However, the likelihood of further development into a tropical cyclone during this stage decreases to low to moderate. Despite this, PAGASA has raised the Tropical Cyclone Threat Potential for the forecast period to ensure preparedness.
Important Reminders
PAGASA emphasizes the importance of vigilance. Local Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Offices (LDRRMOs) and the public are encouraged to monitor official updates, as forecasts can change depending on weather conditions.
For detailed rainfall projections and possible affected areas in the coming weeks, the Rainfall Exceedance Probability Forecast is available at this link: bit.ly/S2SDOSTPAGASA.
Call to Action
Public and private entities are reminded to:
- Regularly follow PAGASA updates and advisories.
- Prepare contingency measures, especially in areas expected to experience heavy rainfall.
- Coordinate with local authorities for any disaster preparedness activities.
