The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has released the latest update on Typhoon “Leon” (#LeonPH), which continues to strengthen as it advances west-northwestward over the Philippine Sea. As of 4:00 AM today, Typhoon Leon was located approximately 395 kilometers east of Calayan, Cagayan, with its center positioned at 18.9°N latitude and 125.2°E longitude.
Current Intensity and Movement
Typhoon Leon, currently packing maximum sustained winds of 165 km/h near its center, brings gusts reaching up to 205 km/h and a central pressure of 935 hPa. Moving at a steady pace of 15 km/h in a west-northwest direction, Leon has expanded its reach, with typhoon-force winds extending outwards up to 680 kilometers from its center. This powerful typhoon is predicted to continue intensifying as it approaches northern Luzon and Taiwan.
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals (TCWS)
PAGASA has raised various Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals (TCWS) across Luzon:
- TCWS No. 3: Raised over Batanes and the eastern portion of Babuyan Islands. Residents in these areas can expect strong typhoon-force winds within 18 hours, ranging between 89 to 117 km/h. Potential impacts include moderate to significant risks to life and property.
- TCWS No. 2: The remaining areas of Babuyan Islands, Cagayan, northern and eastern Isabela, Apayao, Kalinga, northern Abra, and portions of Mountain Province and Ilocos Norte are under Signal No. 2. These locations are anticipated to experience gale-force winds between 62 to 88 km/h within 24 hours, posing minor to moderate threats.
- TCWS No. 1: A broader region covering the rest of Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Ifugao, Benguet, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Nueva Ecija, Aurora, parts of Tarlac, Bulacan, Quezon including the Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, northern Camarines Sur, and parts of Catanduanes are under Signal No. 1. Wind speeds between 39 to 61 km/h are expected within 36 hours, with minor impacts.
PAGASA warned that the highest wind signal, TCWS No. 4, may be raised as Typhoon Leon moves closer to Batanes and Babuyan Islands. Localized gusts, reaching gale-force, are also expected over Bataan, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, the Bicol Region, and parts of the Visayas and Dinagat Islands.
Coastal Hazards and Sea Conditions
A Gale Warning remains active over Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Central and Southern Luzon. Typhoon Leon is anticipated to create dangerous sea conditions in several areas, including:
- Very Rough Seas: Predicted along the seaboards of Batanes (up to 12.0 meters), Babuyan Islands (up to 10.0 meters), northeastern mainland Cagayan (up to 8.0 meters), and portions of Ilocos Norte and Aurora.
- Rough Seas: Sea conditions up to 4.5 meters high may impact areas like Ilocos Norte, Aurora, and Camarines Norte.
- Moderate Seas: In regions such as Zambales, Bataan, and Occidental Mindoro, where wave heights may reach up to 2.5 meters.
PAGASA advises all vessels, especially small boats and fishing crafts, to stay in port and avoid sea travel until conditions improve. Mariners on larger vessels are also cautioned against navigating the hazardous seas.
Potential for Coastal Flooding
A storm surge warning remains in effect, with storm surges of 2.0 to 3.0 meters expected to impact low-lying coastal areas in Batanes, Cagayan, and the Babuyan Islands. This surge, expected over the next 48 hours, may pose a life-threatening risk to residents along the coastlines.
Track and Intensity Outlook
Typhoon Leon is forecasted to move further northwest over the Philippine Sea, expected to approach the eastern coast of Taiwan by tomorrow afternoon, October 31. After potentially making landfall in Taiwan, the storm is predicted to turn northward towards the Taiwan Strait before exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by late tomorrow or early November 1. A second landfall in mainland China remains possible.
As Leon nears its closest point to Batanes, likely early tomorrow, it is anticipated to intensify to near-super typhoon strength, possibly resulting in severe wind impacts for the region. Though a direct hit on Batanes is not yet confirmed, the storm’s influence will bring enhanced wind and rain to northern Luzon.
Rainfall and Wind Conditions
Northern and Central Luzon can expect heavy rainfall, particularly in areas under TCWS No. 2 and 3, which may lead to landslides and flooding in vulnerable areas. Additionally, gusty conditions will persist across the regions of Visayas, MIMAROPA, and other parts of Luzon, especially in coastal and mountainous areas.
Residents in affected areas are urged to follow local advisories, stay indoors, and avoid outdoor activities, particularly near shorelines and flood-prone zones. The public is encouraged to stay updated on the latest weather bulletins as Typhoon Leon approaches.