As of 5:00 PM on October 30, 2024, Super Typhoon LeonPH (internationally named KONG-REY) continues to close in on the Philippines, with its eye situated approximately 215 kilometers east-southeast of Basco, Batanes. With maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h and gusts reaching 230 km/h, Leon’s formidable strength is generating significant impacts across Luzon. PAGASA, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration, warns of severe weather effects and potential hazards to life and property as the typhoon makes its closest approach to Batanes tonight through early tomorrow morning.
Typhoon Intensity and Movement
At 4:00 PM today, the center of Super Typhoon Leon was observed at 20.0°N, 124.0°E, maintaining a northwestward course at 20 km/h. The storm’s intensity has resulted in strong to typhoon-force winds extending up to 600 kilometers from the center. Central pressure remains low at 925 hPa, contributing to Leon’s high wind speeds and extensive impact radius. PAGASA has issued multiple Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals (TCWS), with Signal No. 4 raised in Batanes, anticipating typhoon-force winds within the next 12 hours.
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals (TCWS) and Associated Threats
PAGASA has categorized various areas in northern Luzon under different TCWS levels:
- TCWS No. 4: Batanes – Forecasted to experience typhoon-force winds with a speed range of 118 to 184 km/h. This signal poses significant to severe threats to life and property, warranting immediate precautionary measures.
- TCWS No. 3: Eastern Babuyan Islands and northeastern Cagayan, including Santa Ana – These regions will encounter wind speeds from 89 to 117 km/h. Moderate to significant impacts on life and property are expected within 18 hours.
- TCWS No. 2: The rest of the Babuyan Islands, mainland Cagayan, northern Isabela, Apayao, Kalinga, and parts of Abra and Mountain Province – Gale-force winds between 62 to 88 km/h will affect these areas, posing minor to moderate threats to communities.
- TCWS No. 1: Areas further south in Luzon, including the remaining parts of Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, and as far as Aurora and Pangasinan, are under this signal with strong winds ranging from 39 to 61 km/h. While the impacts here are minimal to minor, authorities advise caution.
Residents in these affected regions are urged to prepare for both the immediate wind threats and potential impacts on essential infrastructure, especially in areas under TCWS Nos. 3 and 4.
Additional Hazards: Rainfall, Coastal Flooding, and Sea Conditions
The super typhoon is expected to bring heavy rainfall, severe winds, and coastal inundation to various parts of Luzon, primarily in Batanes and nearby islands. According to PAGASA’s latest rainfall advisory, significant rainfall is expected in the area, potentially causing flash floods and landslides, especially in mountainous regions.
Coastal Inundation Risks
A storm surge warning is in effect, with a high risk of life-threatening coastal flooding anticipated within the next 48 hours. Areas in Batanes and Babuyan Islands could see storm surges exceeding 3.0 meters above normal tide levels, posing serious hazards for low-lying coastal communities. PAGASA advises these areas to implement evacuations and take precautions against severe coastal flooding.
Hazardous Sea Conditions
Gale warnings are issued for the northern and eastern seaboards of Luzon. Seas are forecasted to become extremely rough, with heights reaching up to 14 meters along the coastlines of Batanes. Mariners are advised to suspend sea travel, especially smaller vessels, and secure their boats as very rough to high seas are expected across northern Luzon’s seaboard and the eastern seaboards of Central and Southern Luzon.
The forecasted sea conditions vary by region:
- Up to 14.0 meters in Batanes
- Up to 10.0 meters in the Babuyan Islands
- Up to 8.0 meters in northeastern Cagayan Mariners, fishers, and coastal communities are urged to avoid venturing out to sea until conditions improve significantly.
Track and Intensity Forecast
PAGASA forecasts that Super Typhoon Leon will maintain its northwestward path over the Philippine Sea, drawing closer to the eastern coast of Taiwan by tomorrow afternoon (October 31). The storm is expected to reach its peak intensity near Batanes but may weaken after crossing Taiwan due to land interaction. Leon is anticipated to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by tomorrow evening or early Friday morning (November 1) as it moves towards the East China Sea.
The potential for a second landfall over mainland China remains, with Leon expected to gradually weaken beyond Taiwan. The possible hoisting of TCWS No. 5 has not been ruled out if Leon veers closer to Batanes than currently projected.
Gusty Conditions in Other Regions
Areas outside the primary Wind Signal zones, including Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, and the Visayas, are likely to experience gusty conditions due to enhanced local winds. Coastal and mountainous areas in these regions should brace for strong to gale-force gusts through November 1, potentially exacerbating the risks posed by ongoing high sea conditions.
Preparedness and Safety Advisory
Authorities urge residents in Batanes and surrounding provinces to stay updated on PAGASA’s advisories and alerts. Communities should secure property, prepare for possible evacuations, and avoid coastal and low-lying areas during the typhoon’s passage. PAGASA, along with local disaster management offices, continues to monitor the storm’s movement and intensity closely, advising the public to remain vigilant and prioritize safety.
As Leon draws near, PAGASA emphasizes that proactive measures, early evacuations, and adherence to local authorities’ guidelines will be critical in minimizing the impact of this powerful super typhoon.