The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) has issued its December 17, 2024 weather forecast. A Low Pressure Area (LPA) has been identified as the primary weather disturbance currently affecting various regions of the country. This LPA was estimated based on available data at 155 kilometers east-southeast of Tagum City, Davao del Norte (6.8°N, 127.1°E). It is embedded along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which continues to bring inclement weather to Visayas and Mindanao.
Forecast Weather Conditions
- Eastern Visayas, Caraga, and Davao Region
Due to the LPA, these areas will experience cloudy skies with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Residents should brace for flash floods or landslides, especially in low-lying and mountainous areas, as moderate to heavy rainfall is expected. - Bicol Region and Quezon
The shear line is forecast to cause cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms in these areas. Moderate to heavy rains could lead to flash floods or landslides. - The Rest of Visayas and Mindanao
The ITCZ will bring cloudy skies with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Similar to other affected areas, there is a heightened risk of flash floods or landslides due to moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall. - Cagayan Valley, Cordillera Administrative Region, and Aurora
These regions will experience cloudy skies with light to moderate rains brought by the Northeast Monsoon. Flash floods or landslides remain a possibility, particularly in areas with elevated terrain. - Metro Manila and the Rest of Luzon
The Northeast Monsoon will result in partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains. These conditions are not expected to have significant impacts.
Wind and Coastal Water Conditions
- Northern and Central Luzon
Winds will be strong from the northeast, with rough coastal waters ranging from 2.8 to 4.0 meters. - The Rest of Luzon and the Eastern Sections of Visayas and Mindanao
Winds will be moderate to strong, also from the northeast, with moderate to rough coastal waters ranging from 1.5 to 3.7 meters. - The Rest of the Country
Light to moderate winds coming from the northeast to north will prevail, causing slight to moderate coastal water conditions ranging from 0.6 to 2.5 meters.
Weather Advisory No. 4: Low-Pressure Area and Shearline
Pagasa has issued Weather Advisory No. 4 at 5:00 AM today, warning of heavy rainfall due to the shear line and LPA:
- Today, December 17: Moderate to heavy rainfall (50-100 mm) is expected in Quezon, Camarines Norte, Eastern Samar, Northern Samar, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, and Davao Oriental.
- Tomorrow, December 18: Similar conditions will persist in Quezon, Camarines Norte, Eastern Samar, Northern Samar, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, and Surigao del Sur.
- Thursday, December 19: Moderate to heavy rains are forecast over Dinagat Islands and Surigao del Norte.
The forecast rainfall may be intensified in mountainous and elevated areas, where antecedent rainfall could exacerbate impacts such as flooding and landslides.