The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) has raised the alert as a low-pressure area (LPA) within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) continues to show a high probability of developing into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.
As of Wednesday afternoon, the LPA remains a major rain-bearing system, bringing widespread rains, especially to Northern and Central Luzon. According to Pagasa weather specialist Benison Dela Cruz, areas including the Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, Cagayan Valley, Aurora, and Nueva Ecija are already experiencing rainfall, with more expected overnight.
Meanwhile, the southwest monsoon, or habagat, is intensifying the effects of the LPA and will continue to impact Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon, resulting in cloudy skies and scattered to widespread rain showers.
Rainfall Outlook Through Saturday
From July 2 to the afternoon of July 3, moderate to heavy rains (50–100 mm) are forecast over Batanes, Cagayan, Isabela, Apayao, Kalinga, Abra, Ilocos Norte, Pangasinan, Zambales, Bataan, and Occidental Mindoro. By Thursday afternoon through Friday (July 4), rainfall is expected to intensify further in some areas, with up to 200 mm anticipated in Batanes, Cagayan, Zambales, Bataan, and Occidental Mindoro.
Metro Manila and surrounding provinces—including La Union, Bulacan, Rizal, Laguna, and Cavite—can also expect significant rainfall between 50–100 mm during this period.
Rain is expected to continue through Saturday afternoon (July 5), especially in northwestern Luzon and western sections of Central Luzon.
Flood Risks and Public Safety
Pagasa has issued general flood advisories for seven regions, including CAR, Regions 1, 2, 3, 4A, 4B, and 5. Residents in mountainous and low-lying areas are advised to remain alert, as rainfall may accumulate rapidly, especially in previously saturated areas.
Local government units and disaster risk reduction offices are urged to take necessary precautions. Pagasa will issue heavy rainfall warnings and thunderstorm advisories as needed.
Pagasa emphasized the difference between a Weather Advisory—which offers a broader outlook—and a Heavy Rainfall Warning, which is more localized and accurate, relying on Doppler radar for real-time monitoring.